Since April, the increase in gold prices has been held back by cash flow moving to the US stock market, especially the S&P 500 index. Analysts say the market is in the classic "coil" model (ie accumulation waiting for a breakthrough) and could fluctuate strongly if there are macro risks or changes in the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
Experts say that gold's safe-haven role will still be strengthened as global central banks continue to net buy in May 2025.
According to the World Gold Council, global central banks net bought 20 tonnes of gold in May, 27 tonnes below the 12-month average, but still showed a clear accumulation trend.
95% of central banks surveyed believe that official gold reserves will continue to increase next year, significantly higher than last year's 81%. Notably, 43% of central banks said they will increase gold reserves - a record high to date.
Gold prices this week recorded a slight increase of 0.82% but were still the precious metal with the worst performance. Meanwhile, palladium increased the most with 12.22%, thanks to Impala platinum Holdings Ltd. will close Lac des Iles in Ontario after palladium prices have fallen sharply over the past three years.
Many analysts are recommending monitoring silver price movements, as cash flows continue to flow strongly into silver ETFs. holdings have now reached their highest level since mid-2022, marking an eight-week increase in a row, the longest streak in nearly five years. This shows that investors' confidence in the possibility of price increases continues to be strengthened.
Regarding production activities, Lundin Gold (a mining company based in Vancouver, Canada) surprised when it announced that the second quarter output reached 139,400 ounces of gold, 20% higher than the estimate of 115,900 ounces from Scotia. Growth momentum comes from improved ore content and the highest processing capacity in the history of the Fruta del Norte mine - an average of 5,064 tons per day, thanks to the project to expand the plant that has just been completed.
However, there are still negative points affecting the market. Bellevue Gold (an Australian gold mining company) recorded a second quarter output of 38,900 ounces, lower than the forecast of 40,00043,000 ounces due to delays in accessing the main mining area at Deacon Gold mine and early-quarter maintenance incidents.
Northern Star (one of the world's leading gold mining companies, headquartered in Perth, Western Australia) also disappointed investors when it lowered its 2026 output forecast to 1,700,0001,850,000 ounces, lower than the estimate of Royal Bank of Canada. The cost of all-inclusive maintenance (AISC) is also higher than expected, at 2,3002,500 AUD/ounce.
