Gold price breaks out, experts make surprising predictions

Khương Duy (Theo Kitco) |

Gold prices are recording a breakout session after a period of downward adjustment. Experts have given very positive comments about gold prices this year.

Gold price towards 3,000 USD/ounce mark

After several sessions of decline, last night the gold price recorded an impressive increase, approaching the threshold of 2,700 USD/ounce.

Gary Wagner, a commodities broker and market analyst, told Kitco that the gold market will see "one last pullback before continuing its strong rally towards a new record high in 2025."

Tai thoi diem viet bai (1h20 ngay 16.1.2025), gia vang giao ngay niem yet tren Kitco o muc 2.694,5 USD/ounce.
At the time of writing (1:20 a.m. January 16, 2025), the spot gold price listed on Kitco was at $2,694.5/ounce.

Gold prices have seen significant rallies in recent years, rising by around $500 an ounce on two separate occasions. Wagner said that if gold prices fall to $2,600 and then rise another $400, as they have in previous cycles, gold could hit $3,000 by the end of this year or early next year.

“I predict gold prices will not only surpass $2,800 an ounce, but also reach around $2,900 an ounce, with a high of $3,000 an ounce. This is based on different bull cycles.

In October 2023, gold was below $2,000 an ounce, then rose to $2,535 an ounce, an increase of about $500 an ounce. Then, gold corrected lower. From $2,380 an ounce, it rose to $2,800 an ounce. We saw a $500 rally, followed by a $400 rally," Wagner told Kitco News.

Mot so yeu to bat dinh co the anh huong den gia vang hien nay la cac muc thue moi do Tong thong My sap nham chuc Donald Trump de xuat va su bat on dia chinh tri keo dai... Anh minh hoa: Phan Anh
Some uncertain factors that could affect gold prices today are new tariffs proposed by incoming US President Donald Trump and prolonged geopolitical instability... Illustration photo: Phan Anh

A major driver of Wagner’s bullish forecast is the potential for new tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, which has said it will impose tariffs on goods from several countries, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on goods from China.

“If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his tariff pledge, it could create significant inflationary pressure,” Wagner said, adding that rising inflation would boost gold prices, as gold is an inflation hedge.

Geopolitical tensions still have a strong impact on gold

Gary Wagner highlighted that geopolitical instability, such as tensions in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, are supporting gold prices. He noted that these conflicts show no signs of abating and that “geopolitical tensions remain very much present.”

The World Economic Forum (WEF) said on Wednesday that armed conflict is the top risk in 2025. “Armed conflict between states is identified as the biggest risk in 2025, reflecting increasing global geopolitical tensions and fragmentation,” the WEF said in its annual report.

In addition to taxes and geopolitical uncertainty, Wagner pointed to other macroeconomic factors that could influence gold prices, such as US fiscal policy and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He said the Fed is slowing the pace of interest rate cuts and the number of cuts in 2025 remains unclear.

“The Fed’s rate cuts this year will depend on current economic data, so we’ll have to wait and see what the data leads to,” Wagner said. He stressed that inflation, economic growth and budget deficits will influence the Fed’s decisions.

Wagner also said a big unknown this year is the impact of tariffs on precious metals. Precious metals are typically exempt from tariffs, but whether that will continue under the Trump administration is unclear. He warned that imposing tariffs on precious metals could cause extreme volatility in the market.

“If physical inventories in the US increase, from a supply-demand perspective, that could put some initial downward pressure on prices due to the increase in inventories. But if there are additional surcharges or tariffs on precious metals imports, that would have a big impact on prices. It would create extreme volatility, affecting the prices of gold, silver, platinum and, to a lesser extent, palladium this year,” Wagner explained.

Khương Duy (Theo Kitco)
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Update on the closing price of gold on January 15: Strong increase

Khương Duy |

Updated gold price closing session 15.1: Reversal to increase. World gold price increased up to 20 USD/ounce.

Gold price is still, many people rush to buy

Phương Anh |

Today (January 15), domestic gold prices remained unchanged compared to the previous trading session. In Hanoi, many people continued to look for plain round gold rings.

Gold price drops attractively, experts still have faith

Khương Duy (Theo Kitco) |

Experts say gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar and high bond yields...