The structural shift in global financial markets
According to Ms. Chantelle Schieven - Head of Research at Capitalight Research, this is an escalation of a "constructive shift" in global financial markets.
Explaining with images of construction blocks, Ms. Schieven said that although the blocks in the Earth's crust move very slowly, at some point a very strong explosion may occur. According to her, 2025 is that moment of explosion, which is likely to fundamentally change the financial market picture.
Faced with concerns that the strong increase in gold this year has pushed the market into an overbought state, Ms. Schieven believes that investors should not confuse "high price" with "no room for increase".
Even if gold is in a bubble state, it does not mean that prices will fall next year or in the near future," she said.
She emphasized that central banks, which have actively purchased gold to supplement reserves since 2022, are still an important support for the market and will continue to create value for investors until 2026. According to her, demand from the formal sector has created a price "floor" that previous cycles did not have.
In the current context, she believes that gold prices "can completely easily rise to $5,000/ounce" in the new year.
Although demand from the central bank is still a support pillar, Ms. Schieven believes that investment demand will be the main driving force leading gold prices in the period up to 2026.
Prospects for 2026
According to Ms. Schieven, gold may look "near its peak", but has not been "overheated", and is still held low in the portfolio compared to the macroeconomic risks that investors are facing.
Fed, inflation and prolonged uncertainties
At the last monetary policy meeting of the year, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a rather optimistic view of economic growth and inflation, saying that inflation will gradually return to the target. However, Ms. Schieven expressed skepticism about the possibility of price pressure cooling down as expected by policymakers.
According to her, structural factors such as the trend of deglobalization, fragmentation of trade and many years of lack of investment in the commodity sector have inherently caused inflation.
She also believes that even a slightly higher inflation is enough to shake the traditional role of bonds as a safe haven asset. For investors who have suffered losses due to negative real yields, gold is increasingly seen not only as a hedging tool with speculation, but as a core part to diversify portfolios.
The Fed is predicting optimistically almost exclusively based on hope and prayer that inflation will fall" - she said - "Currencies no longer provide the same sense of security as before, especially if inflation does not fall as expected. If investors believe that inflation will remain high, then buying bonds at this time is not the best option.
Ms. Schieven also pointed out subtle but noteworthy changes in Fed policy, including adjustments to the balance sheet to curb bond yields. These measures may help "buy more time", but are not enough to restore confidence in long-term monetary stability, a factor that continues to support gold prices.
In her optimistic scenario, she believes that the $5,000/ounce mark is a completely feasible target in the coming year, and is even just a short-term milestone in a longer-term uptrend. However, although the general trend is still upward, she forecasts the market will fluctuate strongly, with necessary and healthy corrections.
