Analysts from Citi (Citigroup Inc. - one of the world's largest financial and banking corporations headquartered in New York, USA) said that concerns about US economic growth and inflation due to tariffs will continue to increase in the second half of 2025.
Along with a weakening US dollar, these factors will push gold prices up slightly, to a new record high.
The expected trading range for this precious metal has also been increased to 3,300 - 3,600 USD/ounce, much higher than the previous 3,100 - 3,500 USD. New forecasts were made after the US announced higher-than-expected import tariffs for many major trading partners, including Canada, India, Brazil and Taiwan (China).
Citi said that raising gold price forecasts is also supported by weaker US employment data in the second quarter of 2025, increasing concerns about the institutional reputation of the US Federal Reserve (FED) and statistical agencies, as well as geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The bank estimates that total demand for gold has increased by more than 33% since mid-2022, causing prices to nearly double in the second quarter of this year. Citi analysts cited strong investment demand, stable central bank purchases and persistent jewelry purchases despite high prices.
These optimistic forecasts are a strong reversal of Citi's forecast just six weeks ago. In a report published in mid-June, the bank's commodity analysts lowered their gold price forecasts and warned that the precious metal could fall below $3,000/ounce by the end of the year.
At that time, Citi lowered its short-term gold price target (0-3 months) from $3,500/ounce to $3,300/ounce. At the same time, the bank also lowered its medium-term gold price forecast (612 months) to 2,800 USD/ounce from 3,000 USD/ounce.
Analysts at that time predicted that gold's safe-haven appeal could gradually decline as economic conditions improve in 2026.
Gold prices continued to show strength in the second session, as spot prices hit a new high in the session right after the North American market opened. At the time of writing at 11:45 p.m. on August 4 (Vietnam time), the world gold price was listed at 3,372.1 USD/ounce, up 10.6 USD/ounce compared to a day ago.
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