Unexpected forecast for the real estate market at the end of 2026

Như Hạ |

Experts predict that the real estate market will continue to differentiate in the second half of 2026, with liquidity concentrated in products serving real housing needs.

Ms. Pham Thi Mien - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Market Assessment Research Institute (VARS IRE) - said that in the second quarter of 2026, apartments accounted for about 74.7% of the total newly opened supply, of which luxury and super-luxury apartments accounted for about 45%, a sharp increase compared to the previous quarter; high-end apartments accounted for about 37%, while mid-range apartments only accounted for about 18%. For low-rise and land plots, the proportion is only 25.3%, down compared to both the previous quarter and the same period in 2025; the main supply is villas and townhouses in large urban areas invested synchronously in infrastructure and amenities.

By locality, Hanoi continues to lead in primary price levels with about 123 million VND/m2, slightly adjusted compared to the previous quarter. In Ho Chi Minh City, the average selling price reached about 108 million VND/m2, almost unchanged compared to the previous quarter.

For apartments, adjustment pressure is concentrated in some projects that have experienced strong price increases. A part of investors participating in the market from the 2023-2025 period also began to adjust profit expectations to increase transferability and balance cash flow. Meanwhile, projects have formed a community of residents, meeting real housing needs well and rental demand still maintains positive liquidity.

Overall, VARS IRE believes that the ongoing purification process is not a sign of market decline but a necessary shift to restructure the market towards transparency, substance and sustainability. When real housing needs become the main driving force, the market will gradually establish a new value level, in which products that simultaneously meet legal requirements, quality, exploitation capacity and liquidity will continue to affirm their advantages, contributing to creating a foundation for a more stable development cycle in the coming years.

Data from Dat Xanh Services shows that the housing market in the first 6 months of the year recorded 37,300 new products, an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year but a sharp decrease compared to the second half of 2025. Supply continues to be concentrated in large-scale projects developed by reputable investors. Total absorption reached about 26,100 products, down 12% compared to the same period and down 62% compared to the last 6 months of 2025. The absorption rate is commonly fluctuating at 20%–30%, reflecting the cautious psychology of buyers in the context that home loan interest rates are still maintained at a high level.

Notably, current liquidity is only locally concentrated in projects serving real housing needs or creating stable cash flow, while suburban investment products have almost very limited transaction volume. Primary selling prices in general still increased compared to the same period in 2025, but compared to the end of 2025, the price level has tended to go sideways, besides, some projects apply preferential policies and discounts to increase liquidity instead of directly adjusting prices.

Dat Xanh Services forecasts that the real estate market in the last 6 months of 2026 will continue to operate in a state of strong differentiation and clearer selection. New supply is expected to add about 33,000 products, raising the total primary supply to more than 100,000 products. However, demand is forecast to still mainly concentrated in the group of customers buying for living and medium-long-term investment, forecasting according to the expected scenario, the common absorption rate is about 20%-30%.

Selling prices are likely to remain stable, some investors will continue to use flexible sales policies to promote liquidity instead of widespread price reductions. Cash flow is expected to continue to focus on projects with complete legal status, reputable investors and meeting real housing needs. Regarding the possibility of strong market recovery, according to researchers, it is not high in the context that floating interest rates are still maintained around 13% and economic factors are still volatile.

Như Hạ
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