Spontaneous land supply will decrease sharply
Vietnam's real estate market is entering a new cycle with strong changes in both legal and management mechanisms. Experts believe that these changes will create a strong screening process, eliminate virtual values and bring the market to develop in a more transparent and sustainable direction.
Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, Director of Housing Project Marketing Department, CBRE Vietnam, said that this year the market will enter an extremely strong screening phase when new decrees and laws are applied synchronously, helping to thoroughly remove all virtual values and make way for highly sustainable assets.
According to Mr. Kiet, the regulation on real estate identification codes is a highlight of the market, helping to accurately control ownership rights, completely transparentize price levels as well as transactions. This mechanism helps to accurately control 100% ownership rights, completely eliminate the situation of standing in the name and helps buyers and sellers to completely transparentize price levels as well as transactions.
The removal of the "two-price" scenario will become a reality when the land price list is closer to reality. Mr. Kiet also said that the market is witnessing the end of the "era of land subdivision" for urban land plots. Because the regulation prohibiting subdivision and sale of urban land plots of type I, II and III may reduce the supply of spontaneous land plots by 80%.
Types of agricultural land and forest land that were "infused" under the guise of resort real estate for subdivision and sale will also lose liquidity. "This is not just a temporary decline but an inevitable elimination process. Types that do not create real use value, disguised as projects, will be removed from the game when cash flow is no longer easy," Mr. Kiet assessed.
Apartments continue to play a leading role
In contrast to the gloom of distorted land plots, the apartment segment is forecast to continue to affirm its leading position in at least the next 5 years. In Ho Chi Minh City, the supply in 2025 recorded a sharp increase to nearly 25,000 products. Notably, the price balance of the entire regional market is having a large contribution from the Binh Duong area, the supply in this area is playing an important role, helping to relieve housing pressure for the core urban area and keep the price level from being pushed too high.
Giving advice to investors in the new cycle, Mr. Kiet said that it is necessary to change thinking, shift from "buying and waiting" to cash flow management and optimizing capital use efficiency, and at the same time carefully assess the legal framework and actual implementation capacity of investors instead of just looking at financial incentive packages.
Need to strictly control the supply of investment and business products
Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) said that the Vietnamese real estate market is physically very good and is on an impressive growth trajectory after more than two decades. In particular, in the period 2024-2025, by changing institutions, public investment capital has become an important "stimulus" to help the market recover.
However, the market still faces some internal problems. The supply situation is lacking strict control, leading to low quality and mismatch between segments. Products for investment and business purposes are completely overwhelming the actual housing needs of people, and a "surplus crisis" is occurring in some areas.
Currently, demand in the market is still maintained at a high level, but has not been fully met in the low-price product segment. Meanwhile, short-term investment activities have increased sharply in recent times, especially in the context of cheap capital flows appearing. Capital sources are currently not clearly oriented towards essential segments but are dispersed into many different fields, leading to the risk of not meeting the needs of the majority of people.
Mr. Dinh warned that if the market health is not improved soon and investors continue to make mistakes in choosing products, there is a risk of falling into crisis.
