In February 2025, IDC forecasted that the number of smartphones consumed in the world in 2025 will increase by 2.3% compared to 2024. However, in the latest forecast, they have lowered their growth rate to just 0.6%.
There are many reasons for IDC to lower its growth forecast, including tariff fluctuations, inflation challenges and unemployment in many regions, which will lead to recession and reduced consumer spending.
In total, the number of smartphones shipped this year is expected to reach 1.2 billion units.
The IDC also said that the compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029 will be 1.4%/year - a relatively low figure. This is due to the longer smartphone innovation cycle, the increase of many smartphone brands, as well as the competition of used phones.
China and the US are two major markets, forecast to have higher growth rates than the world average. In China, the number of smartphones shipped in 2025 is expected to increase by 3% compared to 2024, thanks to government subsidies, thereby stimulating people to shop, especially models using the Android operating system.
Apple's sales in China are expected to fall 1.9% in 2025, due to fierce competition with Huawei, as well as the economic downturn. Most of Apple's iPhones sold in China are not eligible for Chinese government subsidies.
However, according to IDC, Apple's business situation in this country will improve during shopping seasons and major festivals, along with major discounts, while important hardware updates including the launch of the iPhone 17 will boost consumer demand in China.
Meanwhile, the number of smartphones consumed in the US will increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, due to price increases related to tariffs and global instability.
