Economy grows to highest level in 5 years
The main driving force of growth continues to come from the service sector. This sector increased by 8.91%, accounting for 51.9% of the GRDP scale and contributing up to 56% to the overall increase.
Despite improvements, industry and construction have not yet met expectations. This sector increased by 7.73%, accounting for 35.2% of GRDP but only contributed 32.6% to growth. Construction activities increased by 8.05%, contributing about 2.2%. Some manufacturing sectors recovered, but input costs increased, especially due to fluctuations in gasoline and oil prices, creating great pressure on businesses. Key construction projects have been implemented, but contributions to growth are still limited. The outstanding bright spot is that the business environment continues to maintain its attractiveness.
In the first quarter, Ho Chi Minh City had more than 13,600 newly established businesses, an increase of 46.7% over the same period, with a total registered capital of nearly 91,400 billion VND, an increase of 46.6%. The city also attracted nearly 2.9 billion USD of FDI capital, a strong increase of 219.7%. However, the economy is still affected by external fluctuations.
A survey of manufacturing enterprises shows that 77% assess the second quarter situation as stable or more favorable, but nearly 23% forecast difficulties. Ho Chi Minh City sets a GRDP growth target for 2026 of over 10%. To realize this, growth in the first 6 months of the year must reach at least 10.3%, of which the second quarter alone needs to reach about 11.59% - 12.49% (average forecast of 12.04%).
In the domestic market, stimulating consumer demand, improving the effectiveness of the price stabilization program, promoting promotions and organizing large-scale trade and service events are considered key solutions. Notably, the disbursement progress of public investment is still slow.
In the first quarter of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City only disbursed nearly 13,600 billion VND out of a total plan of more than 147,599 billion VND, not reaching 10%. This is considered a "bottleneck" that needs to be removed to create growth momentum.
Right from the beginning of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City has simultaneously started construction of many large-scale projects in the form of PPP such as Rach Chiec National Sports Complex, Phu My 2 bridge, Can Gio bridge... with a total capital of more than 182,000 billion VND.
Mr. Nguyen Thanh Toan - Deputy Director of the Department of Finance - informed that during the April 30th holiday, Ho Chi Minh City will start a series of large projects such as the central square and Ho Chi Minh City Administrative Center project, Ben Nha Rong - Khanh Hoi landscape park project, Ben Thanh - Thu Thiem railway line project, Ho Tram urban expressway - Long Thanh International Airport project, Can Gio International Transshipment Port project...
Growth model transformation
According to Dr. Truong Minh Huy Vu - Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute, in 2026, Ho Chi Minh City will have two important institutional levers including the Law on Special Urban Areas and the overall plan. This will be the basis for the city to shift from the role of implementation to proactive policy creation. The overall plan is being built with 5 focuses: Establishing a separate development philosophy; forming a multi-polar - multi-center structure; developing infrastructure associated with the TOD urban model; three-dimensional space planning (ground, underground space and low-lying space); improving living quality as a competitive factor.
From another perspective, Dr. Nguyen Duy Quang - Head of Digital Economy Department of Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance, said that Ho Chi Minh City is under great pressure as the growth room gradually narrowing. The city is forced to switch to a deep development model based on innovation, digital economy and knowledge economy. If the transition is slow, the risk of declining the leading role is real.
In addition, competition from localities in the country and the region is increasingly fierce, while barriers to mechanisms, policies and decentralization have not been thoroughly removed. Stronger empowerment, accompanied by flexible mechanisms, is considered a key condition for Ho Chi Minh City to promote its potential.
