Credit increases faster than mobilization
Bank capital flows continue to be boosted to meet the needs of the economy in 2026. As of July 31, outstanding credit balance of the entire system reached about 20.26 million billion VND, an increase of 8.98% compared to the end of 2025. Meanwhile, capital mobilization increased by about 5.75%, continuing to be lower than the credit growth rate.
A noteworthy point is that most of the capital flow is still directed into production and business activities. According to data from the State Bank, about 77.3% of the outstanding debt of the economy serves production and business; credit for businesses reached more than 10.7 million billion VND, accounting for 53.4% of the total outstanding debt. Export credit and high-tech application businesses also recorded increases of 28.26% and 38.98% respectively.
However, the high rate of credit growth also raises questions about the ability to balance capital sources and the quality of loans.
Talking to Lao Dong, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Trang - Lecturer at the Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy - assessed that the room for loosening monetary policy in a simultaneous direction has become narrower when inflation, exchange rates and cost of capital must all be considered. "The current problem is not only how much credit there is, but more importantly where credit goes and at what cost" - Ms. Trang assessed.
According to Ms. Trang, if credit is expanded too quickly, pressure may appear in inflation, exchange rates and system safety. Conversely, if capital costs are too high, investment and production and business activities are limited.
This pressure is also reflected in banking operations. The banking industry report released by Shinhan Securities Vietnam on August 19 shows that credit of the monitored banking group increased by about 8.7% from the beginning of the year, while the loan-to-deposit ratio is still high at 102.4%. This unit also noted that actual mobilization costs are still in the 8-9% range and banks must increase the use of valuable papers and foreign capital to supplement capital sources.
In the August strategic report, SSI Research also assessed that high capital costs are starting to have a clearer impact on business operations. This unit believes that the quality of bank assets needs to be closely monitored when the bad debt ratio in the monitoring group is at 1.97%, while the bad debt coverage rate decreases.
We cannot just watch how much credit increases
Another issue raised is the credit flow structure. By the end of May 2026, real estate balance accounted for 25.73% of the total outstanding debt of the economy. However, of this number, about 51.97% is credit for self-use needs. Therefore, according to Ms. Trang, it is not advisable to uniformize all real estate credit with speculative cash flow into assets.
What needs to be concerned is not only which sector the credit goes into, but more importantly the purpose of using capital, the ability to generate cash flow and the debt repayment capacity of the credit" - Ms. Trang said.
According to Master Trang, if credit capital mainly increases asset prices without creating additional production capacity and productivity, the economy may still record more construction, trading and service activities in the short term, but there will be greater risks in the medium term.
Asset prices can increase faster than income; capital is at risk of being drawn out of new production capacity activities; and bad debt risk increases if asset prices adjust or borrowers' cash flow weakens.
The latest data also shows that the quality of real estate credit needs to be further monitored. By the end of June, bad debts in this sector increased by 10.5% compared to the end of the previous year; while about 94% of real estate outstanding debts are medium and long-term loans.
From a broader perspective, capital pressure also places limits on excessive dependence on bank credit to finance growth. Medium and long-term capital currently accounts for only about 16% of the system's total capital, while medium and long-term outstanding debt accounts for 48.5%.
Therefore, according to Ms. Trang, credit quality assessment needs to look simultaneously at the capital structure between production, business and asset activities; the level of capital converted into investment, output and productivity; along with risk indicators such as bad debts, credit concentration and asset price movements compared to income.
Credit quality does not lie in how quickly credit increases, but in whether that capital flow creates additional production capacity, income and cash flow enough to repay or not" - Ms. Trang emphasized.
