The stock market closed a week of positive recovery, with the highlight being the official interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED), ending the downward trend from the previous two weeks.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 20.33 points (+1.62%) to 1,272.04 points. The HNX-Index increased by 1.88 points (+0.81%) to 234.3 points. Liquidity on both exchanges this week improved compared to the previous week, when the matched volume increased by more than 26.3% on the HOSE and nearly 12% on the HNX, with a significant contribution in the last session of the week, due to the portfolio restructuring activities of some ETF funds.
The stock market recovered strongly this week and returned to around 1,270 points, liquidity also increased, but the signal was not convincing enough due to interference in the weekend session.
However, with the Fed's interest rate cut boosting expectations of a cooling exchange rate, foreign money returning and thereby helping to increase market liquidity, the most active industry groups, such as securities companies or interest rate-sensitive banks, also had a week of gains. Similarly, real estate stocks also had a fairly good bounce.
Experts say that the Fed's interest rate cuts often have a major impact on the monetary policies of other central banks around the world, including the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), especially in orienting interest rates and adjusting monetary tools.
When the Fed lowers interest rates, the USD usually weakens, which can affect the VND/USD exchange rate. With the Fed's interest rate cut, the VND exchange rate tends to increase, leading to pressure on exporting businesses and the overall economy. To deal with this, the SBV will often intervene through measures such as buying foreign currency and increasing foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate.
In addition, the Fed's interest rate cut will create space for the State Bank to implement more "loose" monetary policies without worrying about foreign capital outflows or financial instability.
According to many experts, banking and securities stocks are still the two main sectors of the current market and cash flow will also focus on these two sectors the most in the coming time. In addition, some other sectors that are in a fairly good growth phase such as fertilizer, retail, and technology are also noteworthy and attract the attention of investors. Investors also note that construction stocks related to public investment continue to be a bright spot from now until next year because public investment activities are still growing very rapidly with many key projects continuing to be implemented from now until after 2030.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that when the government loosens policies and maintains low interest rates, it will benefit many sectors in economic activities because businesses will have access to cheaper loans and less pressure on interest rates. Especially for sectors with high debt balance such as real estate, manufacturing, and industry.
"Based on the current situation and factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy, it can be predicted that the Vietnamese stock market will have short-term growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. When the Fed continues to lower interest rates, we can expect foreign capital to return to Vietnam. However, we still need to be cautious because in the medium and long term, there may be an adjustment at the end of the quarter when global risk factors become clearer," said Dr. Phuong.
