Request for stricter price control
In the early days of February 2026, Mr. Hoang - a teacher at a primary school in Thuy Nguyen ward (Hai Phong) visited the wholesale market to buy food for his family. The total bill was higher than the previous month even though the quantity of goods did not change. According to Mr. Hoang, the seller shared that during the Tet period, many transportation and import costs increased, causing input prices to increase slightly.
2026 is the first year to implement the GDP growth target of 10% and total demand is forecast to increase more strongly. In that context, the fact that some sensitive commodity groups record local price adjustments is a common phenomenon. However, according to experts, CPI in 2026 is still likely to remain around 3.5%, lower than the threshold of 4.5% set by the National Assembly, if management policies continue to be consistent and timely.
To achieve the double-digit growth target, the total demand of the economy is expected to increase sharply thanks to public investment disbursement, production expansion and credit improvement. When demand increases faster than supply, commodity prices may increase in the short term, especially in the food group, essential goods and domestic services.
This pressure is usually clearly shown from the second quarter - the time when production and business capital flows enter a peak cycle. This is the law of economic movement and can be managed by appropriate credit regulation, consolidating supply capacity and improving the capital absorption capacity of enterprises.
Price fluctuations at some people's markets, such as Mr. Hoang's case, largely come from increased logistics and transportation costs, not reflecting a shortage of supply. This shows that the price level has the potential to self-adjust when demand cools down after peak seasons.
Input costs fluctuate but are within control
In addition to the demand factor, input costs continue to be a pressure layer to be monitored. Fluctuations from fuel prices, exchange rates and international transportation costs affect industries dependent on raw material imports.
Some businesses reflect that raw material prices at the beginning of 2026 increased by 3-7% compared to the same period, a level within the usual fluctuation range of the end of the year. This pressure may be reduced thanks to exchange rate stability, reduced logistics costs, increased replacement capacity with domestic supply and proactive input reserves.
Data from the Department of Statistics (Ministry of Finance), in 2025, some public services will be adjusted according to the roadmap: The group of medicines - medical services increased by 13.07%; the group of housing - electricity, water - fuel increased by more than 6%; of which the price of domestic electricity increased by 7.20%. These factors contribute to bringing the CPI in 2025 to 3.31%, in line with the target set by the National Assembly. This is an important foundation for managing prices in 2026 in a time-divided direction, avoiding causing cumulative impacts on the CPI in the quarters.
According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long - Economic expert, former Director of the Institute for Market and Price Research (Ministry of Finance), to control inflation in 2026 in the context of a GDP growth target of 10% or more, policy management needs to be based on risk management thinking and scenarios. He emphasized six key groups of solutions: Inflation anticipation, transparency of the roadmap for public service prices, increasing the buffer of essential goods supply, close coordination between monetary - fiscal - price policies, reducing logistics costs and compliance costs for businesses, and improving the quality of forecasting - early warning. If implemented synchronously, CPI 2026 will be controlled within the targets set by the National Assembly.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Do - Deputy Director in charge of the Institute of Economics - said that in 2025, inflation will remain stable at 3.3% thanks to cautious monetary policy and a decrease in world commodity prices. In 2026, although the impact from credit and exchange rates will continue, these factors are already in the operating scenario. He forecasts that CPI in 2026 is likely to hover around 3.5% (±0.5%), continuing to be in the control zone.
