These are the assessments of Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong (photo) - former Vice Rector of the National Economics University in an interview with Lao Dong Newspaper about the challenges and opportunities posed for the Vietnamese economy in the current context of many fluctuations.
The double-digit growth target set for 2026 is facing many challenges. In the current context, is there any opportunity for Vietnam, sir?
- The double-digit growth target faces many challenges as domestic capital demand is difficult, and rising interest rates limit credit. Outside, geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, pushed oil prices and input costs up sharply.
However, it should be affirmed that, despite many difficulties, we still have opportunities. When the world situation is unstable, international investment capital tends to shift to places with a stable environment. Vietnam can take advantage of this opportunity to attract investment. In particular, the development of international financial centers will be an important capital attraction point. Fluctuations also create opportunities to restructure export markets, find new partners and sources of supply.
In the current difficult context, to maintain growth momentum, what solutions do we need to focus on, sir?
- We must both promote growth and control inflation, stabilize exchange rates, and maintain major balances. This makes monetary policy unable to focus entirely on growth and forced to be dispersed. This is the biggest challenge. The goal of double-digit growth is not a short-term goal in a year, but a long-term strategy. To become a high-income country, Vietnam must maintain high growth rates for many years, even decades. Therefore, flexible adjustments are needed according to the context.
I believe that it is necessary to be steadfast in three pillars: Macroeconomic stability, inflation control and ensuring large balance. When the macroeconomic environment is stable, investors will be more assured when investing capital, without worrying about too large fluctuations from the outside. At the same time, flexibly use fiscal policy to support growth. In the long term, it is necessary to persevere with the goal of high growth but should not create short-term pressure. The most important thing is to build a solid foundation to maintain the growth rate for many years, instead of chasing numbers in a specific year.
Especially, in the context of limited monetary policy, the role of fiscal policy needs to be promoted more strongly. We need to reduce taxes and fees to reduce input costs, especially for gasoline and oil - factors that spread to the entire economy. For example, in the past time, the management of gasoline and oil supply has been a bright spot.
Although prices are affected by the world market, there is no situation of supply disruption or prolonged scarcity. This is a success that needs to be maintained. In the coming time, if necessary, support packages can be implemented for industries heavily affected by increased input costs.
In the long term, how should Vietnam's growth model change, sir?
- The growth model based on cheap labor, capital and resources was once an advantage that helped Vietnam attract investment and maintain growth for many years, but now it has revealed limitations.
In the new context, we are forced to shift to a growth model based on technology, innovation and data. This requires promoting digital transformation throughout the economy, developing digital infrastructure, and encouraging businesses to invest in research, development, and application of new technologies, especially artificial intelligence.
In addition, human resources need to be upgraded in skills, shifting from simple labor to highly skilled labor, capable of creativity and adapting to technology.
Thank you very much, sir!
