The storm forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that at 3:00 a.m. on July 16, the center of low pressure 07f was at about 13.9 degrees north latitude, 133.2 degrees east longitude, 975km east of Southeast Luzon.
The low pressure is located entirely within the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) and is likely to develop into a storm within the next 24 hours. The storm will then be locally named Crising.
PAGASA forecasts that the potential storm will move northwest over the Philippine Sea. The storm is likely to make landfall in the Northernmost Luzon region late Friday, July 18 or early Saturday morning, July 19.
The southwest monsoon may begin to strengthen today, with heavy rains due to the monsoon expected to make landfall in Southern Luzon and the Visayas.
The southwest monsoon may expand to the areas west of Calabarzon and Central Luzon on July 18, as the storm's rains may also begin to affect Northern Luzon.
Heavy to very heavy rains are possible in Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique and Occidental Mindoro on July 17 and 18.
Floods and mudslides are likely to occur in many areas during heavy and prolonged rains.
According to the Typhoon page on the Northwest Pacific, in the next 10-15 days, with the strong activity of the tropical convergence zone with an axis passing through the East Sea and crossing the sea east of the Philippines and the Northwest Pacific, many disturbances, low pressure areas will be produced and are likely to develop into tropical cyclones.
At least 3-4 named storms will be in the Northwest Pacific typhoon center from now until the end of July, of which in the next 2-3 days, the storm in the eastern Philippines is likely to move into the East Sea this weekend.
Due to many factors, especially tropical cyclones operating in the eastern Philippines and mainly Taiwan (China), the storm in the East Sea is expected to have extremely unpredictable and complicated developments in intensity and direction of movement.
The weather forecast at 3:30 a.m. on July 16 of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of July 16, the mountainous areas of the North will have scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some places having heavy rain. The common rainfall is 15-30mm, locally over 70mm. Thunderstorms will be concentrated in the late afternoon and night.
In the afternoon and evening of July 16, the Central and Southern highlands will have scattered showers and thunderstorms. The common rainfall is 10-30mm, locally over 60mm.
Natural disasters include: tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind in thunderstorms. Risk of flash floods on small rivers and streams; landslides on steep slopes; flooding in low-lying areas.
