The record 2024 typhoon season in the Philippines - with six consecutive typhoons making landfall in less than a month - has been "super-strengthened" by climate change, according to an analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA).
From late October to mid-November 2024, the Philippines will experience a series of consecutive typhoons, starting with Typhoon Trami on October 22 and ending with Typhoon Man-yi on November 16. These storms have displaced more than 200,000 people across six areas, many of whom have lost their homes multiple times in just one month.
The Philippines is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to extreme weather. This series of consecutive storms in such a short period of time is considered by experts to be "unprecedented", even for a country that often faces natural disasters.
According to the WWA, climate change has exacerbated the conditions for strong typhoon formation in the Philippine Sea and the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), including high sea temperatures and high humidity. Research shows that the likelihood of storms with winds of over 180 km/h has increased by 25% compared to pre-industrial times.
Six major storms during this period include three super typhoons with winds exceeding the 208 km/h mark. This highlights the challenges of responding to consecutive extreme weather events, and raises concerns that this trend may continue in the following typhoon seasons.
On October 22, 2024, Typhoon Trami made landfall on Luzon Island, causing heavy rain equivalent to the average monthly rainfall, leading to severe flooding. Just a few days later, super typhoon Kong-rey continued to devastate, affecting more than 9 million people and forcing nearly 300,000 to evacuate.
The series of storms that followed included Typhoons Yinxing, Toraji, Usagi and finally Super Typhoon Man-yi on November 16. Japan recorded the first time in history that four typhoons have formed in the Pacific Ocean at the same time in November.
Climate change not only increases the likelihood of storms but also affects the intensity, rainfall and wave height caused by storms. One study has shown that the likelihood of typhoons reaching maximum intensity in the Philippine Sea this year is 1.7 times higher than it would be without climate change.
Scientists have used observed data and climate models to compare current reality with a hypothetical world without human-caused global warming. The results show that the storm's maximum sustained winds increased by 7 km/h due to climate change.
According to the United Nations, by the end of November 2024, more than 250,000 houses in the Philippines had been damaged, hundreds of people had been killed or injured, and economic losses were estimated at $47 million. The Philippine government has spent more than $17 million in aid and called for support from neighboring countries, the United States and the United Nations.
The average rate of storms forming from the Philippines and then entering the East Sea ranges from 60-70%, depending on the specific weather conditions of each year.
Typhoons typically form in the waters east of the Philippines, then move through areas such as Luzon, Visayas or Mindanao and enter the East Sea.
After entering the East Sea, the storms may continue to make landfall in other countries in the region such as Vietnam, China, or turn towards northern Japan and South Korea.
