The latest storm and low pressure forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on December 13 said that a low pressure near the East Sea may appear during the week from December 13 to 19 and is likely to strengthen into a storm.
PAGASA forecasters said forecast models indicate that the depression will form in the southern boundary of the Philippine PAR forecast region. It will then move closer to the east of Mindanao and the Visayas. The depression near the South China Sea will form between December 13 and 19 and is likely to intensify into a low to moderate storm.
Earlier this week, PAGASA said in its forecast that a potential low pressure area was developing outside PAR and could approach the Philippines in the week before Christmas. PAGASA forecasters warned that the low pressure area has the potential to strengthen into a low to moderate tropical storm. Once it becomes a tropical storm, the storm near the South China Sea will be named Querubin, the 17th storm to affect the Philippines this season.
In addition to the low pressure system that is likely to strengthen into Typhoon Querubin, in its latest storm and low pressure forecast on December 13, PAGASA warned of the possibility of another low pressure system near the East Sea forming between December 20 and 26. This new low pressure system may appear in the eastern coast of Mindanao and Visayas. The low pressure system that forms after potential typhoon Querubin has little chance of strengthening into a tropical storm.
The latest weather bulletin from PAGASA says the Philippines will not record any new storms until the end of the week. However, easterly winds will bring heat and humidity to the country, along with some areas experiencing localized thunderstorms.
In addition to the easterly winds affecting the Bicol and Quezon regions, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is causing cloudy skies in Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi, said weather expert Rhea Torres. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon will be present in Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province and Ifugao, causing overcast skies and light rains. Light rains brought by the northeast monsoon will also affect the Ilocos, Central Luzon and Cordillera regions.
In its weather forecast for next week, released at noon on December 13 and valid until 12 noon on December 20, PAGASA said that the northeast monsoon and the tropical convergence zone will affect the weather in the Philippines until December 14. On December 15, wind shear is forecast to cause cloudy skies with scattered rains and localized thunderstorms in Bicol and Quezon. The northeast monsoon will cause cloudy skies with light rains in Cagayan, Cordillera and Central Luzon.
From December 16-18, wind shear is forecast to continue causing cloudy skies with scattered rains and localized thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Bicol, Calabarzon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija and Aurora. Due to the formation of low pressure near the South China Sea during this period, the Caraga, Davao and northern Mindanao regions will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms.
PAGASA’s weather forecast for the Philippines from December 19 to 20 warns that due to the combined effects of low pressure and wind shear, the Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao regions are expected to experience partly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon is expected to bring partly cloudy skies with light rains in Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Apayo, Rizal and Laguna.