The storm/low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on December 19, low pressure (12a) being monitored inside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) is likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
The depression had weakened from Tropical Depression Querubin on the afternoon of December 18.
At 3:00 a.m. on December 19, the center of the low pressure was at about 9.8 degrees north latitude, 127.7 degrees east longitude, 245 km east of Surigao City. The low pressure and shear line affect the eastern part of Southern Luzon. The northeast monsoon affects the rest of Luzon.
Meanwhile, according to the storm forecast of the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), low pressure 96W (called 12a in the Philippines) has the strongest wind speed of 45 km/h, pressure of 1,004 hPa. Currently, the low pressure is almost unchanged.
Although the tropical depression off the east coast of Mindanao has been downgraded to a depression by PAGASA, the system has improved significantly in terms of organization, including a compact center with thick bands surrounding an obscured circulation center.
These spiral bands are clearly visible on satellite imagery. It is very likely that this system is stronger than the current level.
The JTWC forecasts that the low pressure will begin moving westward over the next few hours before moving inland over Mindanao late on December 19 or early on December 20.
The system will cross Mindanao into the Sulu Sea over the weekend, before being absorbed by another low pressure system below. The system is likely to bring heavy rains to parts of Mindanao, Central and Eastern Visayas, as well as Palawan.
On the same day, the JTWC is also monitoring low pressure area A on the coast of Borneo. A wide and prolonged low pressure area has formed along the northwest coast of Borneo and is producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system could strengthen into a tropical depression on December 23 as it passes west of Borneo and Palawan.
By mid-next week, the system is likely to absorb Depression 96W as soon as upper-level winds begin to become unfavorable for further development. The 7-day chance of formation is 40%.
In addition, a weak low pressure area (low pressure B) located southwest of Chuuk (in the Federated States of Micronesia) is creating unorganized showers. The 7-day chance of formation is only 10%.
The JTWC also issued a warning of strong winds in the East Sea in eastern Vietnam, northern and western Truong Sa archipelago, northeastern sea around Hong Kong/Ma Cao (China), eastern Taiwan (China), Luzon Strait (including the northern coast of Luzon, Philippines) and surrounding waters.
The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of December 20, the North East Sea (including the sea area of Hoang Sa archipelago) will have strong northeast winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9. Strong sea; waves 4-6m high.
The sea area from Binh Dinh to Ca Mau, the central East Sea area, the sea area west of the South East Sea area (including the sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) has strong northeast winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9. Strong sea; waves 3-5m high.
Natural disaster risk level due to strong winds at sea: level 2.
