The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that tropical storm Debby - storm number 4 in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - could form on the night of August 3 local time after strengthening from a tropical depression. .
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for several southern and southwest coastal areas of Florida (USA), and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for most counties in the state.
As of 8:00 a.m. local time on August 3, the tropical depression was near the northernmost tip of Cuba, continuing to move north-northwest into the Florida Strait - a body of water between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba.
This is the point where the tropical depression is expected to strengthen. According to AccuWeather, water temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are around 26.6 degrees Celsius and this will promote storm development.
AccuWeather also indicated that wind shear in the area was light (wind shear plays a role in disrupting storm formation). The humidity of the surrounding area will also help strengthen the storm.
According to AccuWeather, areas of Florida expected to be affected by a potential Category 4 hurricane will begin to see periods of rain, strong thunderstorms and large waves spreading northward across the Florida Peninsula. There is a possibility of waterspouts in coastal areas and tornadoes on land.
Although the potential storm will most likely stay away from Texas, the NHC recommends real-time observations of the storm's development rate once it has enough time in the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The heat energy that fuels tropical storms is warm ocean water that evaporates and eventually rises into the atmosphere. When that air reaches a certain level in the atmosphere, it condenses into clouds and rain. That in turn releases heat that warms the surrounding air, causing the air to also rise.
All this activity leaves a void or lower pressure on the Earth's surface. This causes more warm air to rush in and replace the rising air, thus repeating the cycle. In this low atmospheric pressure environment, the wind begins to circulate counterclockwise and soon the storm forms and strengthens.
The bad news is that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the Florida coast, are currently exceptionally high, averaging 26.6 degrees Celsius, with many places nearing 32.2 degrees Celsius.
"Warmer water will maximize the potential intensity of the storm," said Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Sciences (USA).
As Superstorm Beryl demonstrated last month, it only takes a few hundred kilometers offshore and about a day for a storm to rapidly strengthen and then go on to become a super typhoon.
The unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico could accelerate the development of a potential Category 4 storm, although the system's proximity to the Florida coast gives the system a shorter period of time to develop before making landfall.
According to AccuWeather, although storm No. 4 is not currently expected to strengthen into a super storm, the possibility of this happening cannot be completely ruled out.
If the tropical depression stalls offshore, it could quickly strengthen and become a major storm or even a superstorm , according to AccuWeather storm forecaster Alex DaSilva.
