The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Tropical Storm Debby - the fourth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - could form on the night of August 3 local time after strengthening from the tropical depression.
Tropical storm warnings and monitoring have been issued for parts of Florida's southern and southwest coastal areas, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for most counties in the state.
As of 8:00 a.m. on August 3, local time, the tropical depression was near the northernmost tip of Cuba, continuing to move north-northwest into the Florida Strait - a water area between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba.
This is where the tropical depression will strengthen. According to AccuWeather, the water temperature in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be around 26.6 degrees Celsius, which will promote the development of the storm.
AccuWeather also points to light wind shear in the area (the wind shear plays a role in disrupting storm formation). The moisture of the surrounding area will also help increase the strength of the storm.
According to AccuWeather, areas of Florida affected by potential Hurricane No. 4 are expected to begin to see heavy rains, thunderstorms and large waves spreading northward over the Florida Peninsula. There is a possibility of dragon fruit appearing in coastal areas and tornadoes on land.
Although the potential storm is likely to be far from Texas, the NHC recommends real-time observation of the storm's rate of development as it has enough time in the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The heat energy that fuels tropical cyclones is the warm ocean waters that evade and eventually rise into the atmosphere. When that air reaches a certain level in the atmosphere, it will clump up into clouds and rain. That releases heat to warm up the surrounding air, causing it to rise.
All of these activities leave a gap or lower pressure on the Earth's surface. This causes more warmer air to flood in and replace it with air, thereby repeating the cycle. In this low atmospheric pressure environment, the winds began to circulate counterclockwise and within a short time, the storm formed and strengthened.
The bad news is that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the Florida coast, are currently particularly high, averaging 26.6 degrees Celsius, with many places experiencing temperatures close to 32.2 degrees Celsius.
Water will maximize the potential intensity of the storm, said Brian McNoldy, a senior research fellow at the Rosenstiel School of Maritime, Aerospace and Earth Sciences at the University of Miami.
As Hurricane Beryl demonstrated last month, just a few hundred kilometers offshore and about a day before it rapidly intensified and then continued to become a super typhoon.
The unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico could accelerate the development of potential hurricane No. 4, although its location near the Florida coast gives the system a shorter development period before making landfall.
According to AccuWeather, although currently storm No. 4 is not expected to strengthen into a super typhoon, it is still impossible to completely rule out the possibility of this happening.
If the tropical depression stops offshore, it could rapidly strengthen and become a major storm or even a super typhoon - according to AccuWeather typhoon forecaster Alex DaSilva.
