Since the superstorm Beryl and storm Chris appeared in early July, the Atlantic tropical region has been quiet so far due to the Sahara dust. However, the hurricane season may accelerate as it enters August.
Sahara dust (SAL) is a dry, dusty air mass that forms over the Sahara Desert in late spring, summer, and early fall.
According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Sahara dust can extend from 1,500 to 6,000 meters in the atmosphere.
Trade winds carry the dust thousands of kilometers from Africa across the Atlantic, as far west as Florida, Texas, and Central America. Satellites and hurricane forecast models track the journey of this dust across the Atlantic.
During the peak period of Sahara dust, typically from late June to mid-August, hurricane activity is much lower due to the dry, dense air of the dust and increased wind shear. Vertical wind shear can tear apart a storm as it tries to form. With an abundant amount of dry air in the atmosphere, tropical storms and hurricanes are less likely to form and/or intensify.
While Sahara dust is still moderately active, especially near the African coast, there are favorable conditions in the Caribbean for the next storm to gradually form.
According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), a disturbance in the central Atlantic has an increasing chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm by the end of this week.
As of July 30, hurricane forecasters have raised the likelihood of the next storm forming this week from 40% to 50%.
"A storm could form by the end of the week as this system nears the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas," NHC wrote.
Since the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been 3 storms formed, including storm Alberto, superstorm Beryl, and tropical storm Chris, formed from mid-June to early July.
Superstorm Beryl set a record by becoming the earliest, fastest intensifying, and most intense superstorm at the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Beryl weakened into a tropical depression on July 11.
Tropical storm Chris existed for a short time and dissipated on July 1.
The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is Debby.
The updated hurricane forecast for the 2024 season from Colorado State University, USA, predicts this year's hurricane season will be intense with 25 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.
