Since Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Chris appeared in early July, the Atlantic tropical region has been temporarily quiet due to Sahara dust. However, the hurricane season could accelerate as it enters August.
Sahara Dust (SAL) is a dry, dusty air mass that forms in the Sahara desert in late spring, summer and early fall.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Sahara dust can extend 1,500 to 6,000 meters in the atmosphere.
The trade winds carry dust for thousands of kilometers from Africa across the Atlantic, as far west as Florida, Texas and Central America. Satellite and storm forecast models monitor the path of this dust layer across the Atlantic.
During the peak period of Sahara, usually from late June to mid-August, storm activity is much lower due to increased dry, dense air of dust and wind shear. vertical wind shear can tear up a storm as it tries to form. With an abundant amount of dry air in the atmosphere, tropical storms and typhoons are unlikely to form and/or strengthen.
While Sahara is still active at a moderate level, especially near the coast of Africa, there are favorable conditions in the Caribbean for the next storm to gradually form.
According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), a disturbance in the central Atlantic is likely to increase to a tropical depression or storm this weekend.
As of July 30, forecasters have raised the likelihood of a further storm this week from 40% to 50%.
"Storms could form over the weekend as the system approaches the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas," the NHC wrote.
Since the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been three storms, including Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, and Tropical Storm Chris, which formed between mid-June and early July.
Hurricane Beryl set a record as the earliest, fastest and strongest superstorm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression on July 11.
Tropical Storm Chris short-lived and dissipated on July 1.
The next name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Debby.
The updated hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season from Colorado State University, USA, predicts that this year's hurricane season will be intense with 25 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and 6 major storms.
