The latest storm and low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on May 9 said that during the week from May 9 to May 15, no low pressure or storm is forecast to form within the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR).
Forecast models show little chance of a low pressure or storm forming during this period in the larger PMD forecast area.
However, the low pressure near the East Sea is expected to form between May 16 and May 22.
Philippine typhoon forecasters say a new low pressure is likely to form within the PAR before approaching Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon.
Although it is forecast to have a large area of impact, this low pressure near the East Sea is unlikely to strengthen into a storm during the forecast period.
PAGASA's May 7 storm forecast said that a new low pressure area has formed and is likely to enter the East Sea during the week of May 14 to May 20. At that time, this low pressure near the East Sea was forecast to appear at the eastern boundary of the Philippine PAR forecast area and was unlikely to strengthen into a storm.
However, throughout the forecast period, this low pressure will move northwest, near Visayas and Southern Luzon, with the possibility of passing through the Philippines and entering the East Sea.
One to two storms are forecast to form in the PAR region in May. Experts predict the likelihood of typhoons will increase as the Philippines is entering the typhoon season. The first storm of this year's hurricane season will be named Auring, followed by Bising.
Typhoons in May that form in the Philippine forecast area typically have two movements, PAGASA said.
According to Pagasa's forecast models, two common lines of the May storm include: Storms formed in the Western Pacific basin, going into the Par forecast area and then around the East and not landing in the Philippines; The storm formed in the Western Pacific basin into the Par forecasting area, the central Philippines landing then circled to the northeast before leaving PAR.
An average of 20 typhoons occur in the Philippines each year, with 8-9 of them likely to make landfall. Similar to May, forecasters in the Philippines predict that there could be one to two storms forming or entering the PAR forecast area in June. From July, August and September 2025, it is expected that there will be 2 to 3 storms/month.
