The Australian Meteorological Agency emphasized that rainfall in Australia is not only affected by the Southern El Nino Oscillation (ENSO). Factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, sea surface temperatures in each region, and long-term climate trends also play an important role.
Currently, ENSO is in a neutral state - neither La Nina nor El Nino. Although forecast models show the possibility of transitioning to El Nino in the coming months, the timing and severity are still uncertain.
The Australian meteorological agency said that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific region have recently gradually increased. Models from the Australian Meteorological Agency and other organizations forecast that the tropical Pacific will continue to warm up in the coming months, possibly reaching a threshold suitable for El Nino.
However, the time to reach this threshold varies from model to model: Some forecasts are earliest from May, while others show a slower warming process and may not reach the threshold until July.
However, sea surface temperature is only one of the indicators of ENSO. The Australian Meteorological Agency said that it is necessary to observe more signs that the atmosphere is also transitioning to El Nino state, including changes in wind signals, atmospheric pressure and cloud morphologies. Ocean-atmospheric interaction is a necessary condition for the formation of a sustainable El Nino state.
The Australian Meteorological Agency emphasizes that El Nino and La Nina are not rare or abnormal phenomena, but are part of the natural cycle in the Pacific that can affect global weather. When forecasting too far, models can overestimate seasonal fluctuations of the ocean and atmosphere.
In the first long-term forecast for the period July-July 2026, released on April 16, the Australian Meteorological Agency said that rainfall is likely to be lower than the average in some areas of eastern and southwestern Australia. During this period, rainfall is likely to be higher than the average in some areas of western and central Western Australia, as well as some places along the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula (Queensland). For most of the remaining areas, there is no clear signal of a drier or more humid trend, meaning the possibility of higher or lower than average rainfall is almost equal.
