According to HSBC analysts, increased geopolitical risks and rising public debt could push gold prices up to $5,050/ounce in the first half of 2026, but this could also lead to a stronger price drop in the second half of the year.
We forecast gold prices will fluctuate in the range of 5,050 USD to 3,950 USD/ounce in 2026 and the year-end price is 4,450 USD/ounce," HSBC analysts said in a report released on January 8.
However, while the forecast of 5,050 USD/ounce was higher than the previous forecast of 5,000 USD/ounce, this bank also lowered its forecast of average gold price for 2026 from 4,600 USD/ounce to 4,587 USD/ounce, with the reason that price increases could cause a correction at the end of the year.
Analysts added that the adjustment could be deeper if geopolitical risks are reduced, or if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) stops cutting interest rates, and noted that gold trading is likely to fluctuate sharply in 2026.
HSBC also raised its average gold price forecast for 2027 to 4,625 USD/ounce from 3,950 USD; 2028 to 4,700 USD from 3,630 USD; 2029 is 4,775 USD/ounce.
At the end of November, HSBC's monetary and commodity strategist Rodolphe Bohn said he saw gold will maintain its growth momentum amid strong demand from central banks and individual investors.
In HSBC's "Think Future 2026" publication, Mr. Bohn said that despite the impressive increase from the beginning of the year to now and recent fluctuations, this bank still maintains a positive view of gold in the coming months.
“We believe that investors can benefit from diversifying their portfolios in global assets, especially foreign exchange, through gold” - he wrote. “Gold brings the ability to recover in periods of strong fluctuations and has the potential to increase further.”
Mr. Bohn noted that gold experienced one of the most successful years in history in 2025. “This remarkable growth is mainly due to increased global instability and concerns about the depreciation of the USD,” he said.
Although global sentiment has improved and the global stock market is increasing, current market conditions continue to support gold prices.
We believe that gold will continue to benefit from strong demand from central banks, persistent concerns about a weaker USD, and sustainable interest in gold-backed ETF funds," he added.
In this context, gold is still an important diversification factor in the investment portfolio, helping customers overcome persistent global instability.
Mr. Bohn also acknowledged the downside risks for HSBC's positive outlook if the Federal Reserve (Fed) suddenly adopts a tougher stance or if the global economic environment improves, despite the current positive correlation.
In general, with forecasts of the weakening of the USD and further easing of global monetary policy, especially from the Fed, there is a basis for gold prices to rise, although at a slower pace than before," he said.
World gold price at 6:50 PM on January 9th Vietnam time traded at 4,472.59 USD/ounce, up 20.36 USD.
With domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are traded at 156.3 - 1583.3 million VND/tael (buying - selling). 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold ring prices are traded at 155.6 - 158.6 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
