On August 12 (Washington time), tropical storm Cristobal formed in the northern Atlantic, while 2 other disturbances are being monitored and are likely to continue to develop in the coming days.
According to the latest weather forecast from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), storm Cristobal formed late in the morning of August 12 with sustained winds of about 72 km/h. Just hours before that, this system was assessed to have about 50% development potential.
Cristobal is forecast to survive for a short time at sea, not threatening the mainland and may weaken and disintegrate in the afternoon of August 13 when moving into colder waters.
Meanwhile, the NHC is monitoring another disturbance zone in the Atlantic tropical region with a 80% chance of developing into at least one tropical depression by the weekend. If it continues to strengthen into a tropical storm, this system will be named Dolly.
According to current forecasts, this disturbance area may strengthen into a tropical depression as early as August 13 when moving westward. Many forecast models are bringing the system to the eastern Caribbean by the weekend.
Another disturbance zone further east of the Atlantic Ocean is also being monitored by the NHC with a 40% chance of developing in the coming days.
The Atlantic enters a period of strong activity
The continuous appearance of Cristobal and 2 disturbances occurs during the time when tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean usually begins to increase. Mid-August to mid-October is the period when most tropical storms and typhoons usually appear during the storm season.
A typhoon season usually has at least 3 tropical storms on August 3 and 4 on August 15. 8. The first storm usually forms around August 11. 8.
Before Cristobal, this year's storm season only recorded 2 tropical storms Arthur and Bertha. Both formed near the coast of the US Gulf and did not strengthen significantly.
NOAA currently assesses the possibility that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be below average at 75%, up from 55% in the previous forecast. The agency also lowered its forecast for major storms from 1-3 to 0-2.
Although the 2026 storm season is operating slower than usual, the peak period is still ahead. New disturbance zones will continue to be monitored as intensity and direction of movement change.
If the 2026 hurricane season ends without a Category 3 or higher storm, this will be the first time since 2013 that the Atlantic has not recorded a major storm.
