Recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have destroyed about half of the missiles and rockets Hezbollah had amassed over three decades, dealing a major blow to the militia's capabilities, senior American and Israeli officials said.
Still, Hezbollah's arsenal remains formidable, with tens of thousands of artillery shells deployed across Lebanon and large-scale attacks that could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome anti-artillery defense system, officials note.
Hezbollah has been spreading weapons across Lebanon and has been using them since October to fire at northern Israel. Israel has launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon, forcing tens of thousands of Lebanese to flee.
However, around September 17, Israeli leaders decided to destroy as many of the weapons depots as possible, so that some 60,000 Israelis who had evacuated northern Israel because of constant fire from Lebanon could return.
The very next week, the Israeli Air Force began devastating attacks on Lebanon.
Hezbollah, with Iran’s help, spent three decades building an arsenal estimated at between 120,000 and 200,000 warheads. After the initial attacks, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah asked Iran and Syria to replenish their arsenals, Israeli officials and a U.S. official said. The request led to Israel’s decision to assassinate the Hezbollah leader.
Since Nasrallah’s death on September 27, Lebanese officials have heard Israeli requests to deny Iranian planes flying into Beirut, complicating Hezbollah’s efforts to resupply with weapons, US officials noted.
On October 1, the Israeli military said it had killed Muhammad Jaafar Qasir - a Hezbollah commander in charge of transferring weapons from Iran to Lebanon - in an airstrike in Beirut.
Also this week, Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon. The Israeli military plans to destroy Hezbollah's missile arsenal and launchers, according to officials.
Two Israeli officials revealed that Israel's intention is to continue targeting Hezbollah's weapons depots and eliminating Hezbollah commanders.
Although Hezbollah still has a significant arsenal of rockets and missiles, the militants do not fire large amounts of fire into central Israel.
One reason for the development, US officials say, is that the series of Israeli strikes has severely damaged Hezbollah's command and control structure, leaving few senior leaders to issue orders to lower-level members.
Hezbollah may also be waiting for a signal from Iranian officials. Hezbollah’s arsenal was built to act as a deterrent against Israel’s ability to attack Iran. If Hezbollah uses up most of its remaining weapons and cannot replenish them, that deterrent will disappear.
It is also possible that Hezbollah wants to let Iran retaliate with its own much more powerful arsenal. On the night of October 1, the Iranian military fired a series of ballistic missiles at Israel.
