In the Prospects for Precious Metals report released on Thursday, CME Group pointed out 5 major topics, considered to be the main drivers that dominate the price movements of precious metals in 2026.
Gold buying demand from central banks continues to be maintained
The first factor is persistent gold buying demand from central banks. "The buying activity of the official sector has shifted from momentary to a stable accumulation trend" - experts said. "After significant net buying waves in 2024 and 2025, demand from central banks is likely to still be an important structural factor of the global gold market".
CME Group believes that this is part of a broader strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves of monetary agencies. According to a 2025 World Gold Council survey, most central banks forecast that the proportion of gold in reserves will increase, while the proportion of USD will decrease in the next 5 years. Notably, 95% of survey participants expect global gold reserves of central banks to increase in the next 12 months.
The correlation between gold and real yields is weakening
The second topic is the breakdown in the traditional correlation between gold prices and real yields.
One noteworthy point in 2025 is that gold prices set a new record in the context of high real yields" - analysts said. Previously, these two factors often had a close reversal relationship: gold prices increased when real yields decreased and vice versa.
However, recent divergence shows that although the opportunity cost of holding non-profitable assets like gold still exists, this factor is being overwhelmed by other variables, such as the need for geopolitical risk hedging and the trend of diversifying national reserves.
According to CME Group, in 2026, traditional forecasting models based heavily on yields need to be placed in a broader context. “This relationship has not necessarily been completely broken, but the sensitivity of gold to real interest rates may have decreased compared to other macroeconomic drivers.”
Strong fluctuations in the gold/silver ratio
The third driving force is the strong fluctuation of the ratio of gold price to silver price.
According to records in 2025, the gold/silver ratio fluctuates in a very wide range, at times exceeding 100 times - the first time since 2020 - before narrowing to around or below 60 times, the lowest level in more than a decade" - CME Group said.
The main reason is that gold and silver reached peak prices inconsistently. Gold led the initial upward trend thanks to monetary factors and demand from central banks, while silver rose later but at a stronger pace.
The silver characteristic usually follows the breakthrough of gold but increases with a larger amplitude, creating a natural expansion-contraction cycle of this ratio" - experts analyzed - "Because silver is both a monetary asset and an industrial metal, investors need to closely monitor the gold/silver ratio as these dynamics continue to change".
Supply deficit and reduced treasury inventory
The fourth factor is the increasingly obvious shortage of silver supply, accompanied by the withdrawal of inventory.
CME Group said that the silver market is entering its fifth consecutive year of deficit, when industrial demand far exceeds the supply from mining. "The low supply elasticity is due to the large amount of silver being mined as by-products of copper, lead or zinc, making output not directly dependent on silver price fluctuations" - the report stated.
On the demand side, stable demand from the solar energy industry and the electrification process have contributed to reducing reserves. “This scarcity makes the silver market more sensitive to supply chain shocks than in years of balanced supply and demand,” CME warned.
Changing role of platinum and palladium
The final factor is the change in the role of platinum metals (PGMs), including platinum and palladium.
According to CME Group, this metal group moves according to very different factors compared to gold and silver. "PGMs are strongly affected by the risk of supply concentration in some key manufacturing sectors, as well as changes in the demand of the auto industry.
The fact that automakers switched to replacing palladium with platinum in emission catalysts has changed the supply-demand balance. However, the long-term prospects of this metal group still depend heavily on the industrial production cycle.
