Forecasting natural disaster trends
According to statistics from the Southern Institute of Water Resources Planning, there are 8 types of natural disasters that often occur in the Mekong Delta: drought, saltwater intrusion; floods, inundation; riverbank and coastal erosion; heavy rain; heat waves; storms, tropical depressions; thunderstorms, lightning; and natural forest fires.
Forecasting the natural disaster trend in the region from December 2024 to May 2025, Ms. Nguyen Thanh Hoa (Climate Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting) informed that the weather in the next 3 months may lean towards La Nina, and by March 2025, this phenomenon will end.
Also during this period, there may be unseasonal rains in the Mekong Delta, with rainfall levels higher than the average of many years. However, since this is the end of the dry season, the increase in rainfall is not significant. Also in the next 6 months, the total flow of the Mekong River to the Mekong Delta will be 5-15% lower than the average of many years.
Representatives of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predict that the water level in the Mekong River upstream will gradually decrease and will be 0.1-0.2m lower than the average of many years. However, the saline intrusion in the 2024-2025 dry season will be higher than average, not as severe as the dry seasons of 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.
Mr. Nguyen Huy Khoi - Head of Science, Technology and International Cooperation Department (Southern Institute of Water Resources Planning) - forecasts that the high tide in the 2024 - 2025 dry season will be high, much higher than the average of many years. The plan to sow the 2024 - 2025 Winter-Spring rice crop in the Mekong Delta is 1,490,000 hectares, with the risk of drought and saltwater intrusion.
Plan early, keep petitioning
Recalling the historic saline intrusion, Mr. Nguyen Truong Chinh - Deputy Head of the Tra Vinh Province Irrigation Department - said that at that time, the province lost about half of its winter-spring rice area. Therefore, in recent years, the implementation of plans to respond to saline intrusion has been pushed forward. This year's dry season, the Department has consulted the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD) to submit a response plan to the Provincial People's Committee since October.
At the Forum "Improving community capacity in disaster prevention and control in the Mekong Delta region" held in Can Tho City at the end of November 2024, Mr. Chinh also proposed that central agencies and scientists coordinate to help Tra Vinh overcome difficulties.
Accordingly, the Nam Mang Thit irrigation system is very effective in preventing saltwater intrusion. However, due to the seasonal schedules of the two provinces (Tra Vinh and Vinh Long) often not being synchronized, production (especially in the winter-spring crop) has not yet achieved maximum benefits. Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has handed over to Tra Vinh the management of about 50 sluices in the area, but more than 50% have not yet been invested in opening doors. Therefore, the province recommends that the Ministry pay attention and arrange medium-term capital for the province to end this situation.
In Ca Mau province, on November 22, the People's Committee of Ca Mau province officially developed a plan to respond to drought and salinity in 2025. Ca Mau assessed that the rainy season in 2024 is about to end, so it requested localities in the freshwater area to proactively regulate and store fresh water to serve production and people's lives in the dry season of 2024-2025.
It is known that in the dry season of 2024, the whole province of Ca Mau had 730 subsidence locations with a total length of more than 19km, including 83 riverside landslide locations with a length of nearly 2.2km. The cause of landslides and subsidence is not only due to the loss of water counterpressure on the riverbank but also due to weak geological characteristics, some infrastructure works located near the riverbank, large load, deep riverbed.
To be proactive in responding to the 2024-2025 dry season, the Provincial Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention, Search and Rescue and Civil Defense requests relevant units and localities to closely monitor hydrometeorological forecast information from competent agencies, promptly inform, propagate and warn people and relevant organizations to proactively implement prevention, avoidance and response solutions.
