In the newly updated February macro report, MBS Research experts expect Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to reach 7.1% - 7.5% thanks to accelerating public investment disbursement and the recovery of the manufacturing industry.
In addition to positive factors, experts warn that Vietnam's export growth in 2025 still faces many challenges such as: Weak demand for electronic components in the short term, while large markets such as the US are increasing tariff barriers and applying new protectionist measures with unpredictable policies, which can disrupt the global value chain as well as impact key export industries such as textiles, wood, electronics, etc.
In addition, escalating trade tensions between major economies may indirectly affect Vietnam's export activities in exporting products with input materials imported from China to the US.
Recently, in a report published on February 20, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Vietnam's GDP will reach a growth rate of 6.7%. According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - senior economist for the Vietnam and Thailand markets of Standard Chartered, the first half of the year is forecast to reach 7.5% and the second half will decrease to 6.1%. This growth rate is mainly driven by continuous business expansion and the important role of FDI.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan said that the driving force for Vietnam's economic growth partly comes from FDI capital in key sectors such as manufacturing in the number 1 position, followed by real estate, retail sales, agriculture, exports and the recovery of the tourism industry.
Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh - General Director and Director of Corporate and Investment customers of Standard Chartered Vietnam - said that the forecast of Vietnam's economic growth rate in the first half of the year growing higher than the second half was based on the reflection on the continuation of strong growth from last year in the first half of this year.
The next half year will see greater volatility, especially in the second quarter, when the US government will announce more details about its trade policy, including tariffs on products such as semiconductors, cars and pharmaceuticals. These decisions will affect not only the Vietnamese market but also the global trade situation.
Therefore, there will be stable growth in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, the global economic situation is forecast to slow down, mainly due to uncertainty in trade policies.
At the closing session of the 9th extraordinary session held on February 19, with 463/464 delegates participating in the vote, the National Assembly voted to approve the National Assembly Resolution to supplement the socio-economic development plan for 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more.
