According to the latest storm information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the low pressure area of symbol 06a in the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm No. 1 on June 10 or in the coming days.
According to PAGASA's storm forecast bulletin, at 2:00 p.m. on June 9, the center of the low pressure was at about 16.5 degrees North latitude, 116.6 degrees East longitude, 405 km west of Bacnotan, La Union, Philippines. PAGASA assessed that the low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
"The depression could develop into a tropical depression or storm tomorrow (June 10) or in the coming days. Based on current forecasts, the depression will move westward, out of the Philippines and PAR over the next few days," said PAGASA weather forecaster Obet Badrina.
"If the depression becomes a tropical storm, it will be locally named Auring, in case the storm is still within the Philippine forecast area," he added.
If the depression develops into a storm, it is likely to intensify the southwest monsoon, according to Badrina. The impact of the southwest monsoon is expected to continue, especially in western Luzon and the Visayas. We predict that most of Luzon and the Visayas will have rain due to the southwest monsoon, Badrina noted.
Meanwhile, some areas of Mindanao will have scattered showers or localized thunderstorms, with occasional thunderstorms. Some areas of the Cagayan Valley will also have rain.
In addition to the low pressure, PAGASA has not detected any other weather disturbances inside or outside the country's monitored areas.
Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the low pressure trough with an axis at about 15-18 degrees North latitude is currently connected to a low pressure area in the North East Sea.
The low pressure location at 1:00 p.m. on June 9 was at about 16.9-17.9 degrees North latitude; 115.5-116.5 degrees East longitude.
It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the low pressure area will move slowly in the West direction and is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression.
On the night of June 9 and June 10, the sea area from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau, the southern sea area of the Central East Sea, the southern East Sea area (including the Truong Sa archipelago) will have strong southwest winds of level 5, sometimes level 6, gusting to level 7-8, rough seas.
The North East Sea area (including the Hoang Sa archipelago), the Central and South East Sea area (including the Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Binh Dinh to Ca Mau, Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will have showers and thunderstorms. During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, strong gusts of wind of level 6-7 and waves over 2m high.
Risk level of natural disasters due to strong winds at sea: Level 2.
