As Americans focus on the US presidential election on November 5, hurricane forecasters are closely monitoring the tropical depression in the western Caribbean that could affect the US later this week, although the extent of the impact is still uncertain.
The system, now known as Tropical Depression 18, has prompted the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to issue a typhoon and tropical storm warning, respectively. Cuba is also expected to be affected.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said Tropical Depression 18 could strengthen into a tropical storm by the night of November 4 and be named Rafael. He forecasts Rafael to impact the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
"Even if it encounters colder water with wind shear and begins to lose intensity as it moves north, there will still be significant wind and rain," Pydynowski told USA Today. There will still be impacts even if it is a tropical storm."
The National Hurricane Center's weather bulletin said the system is expected to bring heavy rains across parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and southern and western parts of Cuba, through midweek. Flooding and mudslides are also possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.
Heavy rains could then spread north into Florida and other parts of the southeastern United States. Forecasters are advising residents in Cuba and the Florida Keys to keep an eye on the system for the week.
Storm season causes serious damage
The 2024 hurricane season has caused huge devastation from storms like Beryl, Helene and Milton... The US has suffered 5 storms this season, killing at least 300 people and causing economic losses of about 130 billion USD.
Only four have been recorded to have made landfall in the US in the penultimate month of the season, but the most recent, Nicole, hit Florida just two years ago. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
There is still much unknown about the current system, its track and the possibility of being strengthened during the week. But Pydynowski points to favorable conditions in the Caribbean, including low wind shear and temperatures slightly above average in the mid-1980s.
The big question for the US is what happens after the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly on November 6. It could initially strengthen before experiencing strong wind shear and slightly colder water as it approaches the U.S. mainland.
Storms and depressions still persist
The NHC said a low pressure trough near the southern Bahamas has produced showers and thunderstorms but is likely to be absorbed by Rafael on November 5.
But there are still signs of further tropical activity in the northern Caribbean and perhaps the extreme southwest Atlantic around the Bahamas. Pydynowski stressed that the hurricane season will not end for nearly four more weeks.
