As Americans focus their attention on the November 5 U.S. presidential election, hurricane forecasters are closely monitoring a tropical depression in the western Caribbean that could impact the United States later this week, although the extent of the impact remains uncertain.
The system, now known as Tropical Depression 18, has prompted the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to issue hurricane warnings and tropical storm warnings, respectively. Cuba is also expected to be affected.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said Tropical Depression 18 could become a tropical storm by the night of November 4 and be named Rafael. He predicted Rafael would impact the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
"Even if it encounters colder water and wind shear and starts to lose strength as it moves north, there will still be significant wind and rain. There will still be impacts even if it's a tropical storm," Pydynowski told USA Today.
The system is expected to bring heavy rains across parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and southern and western parts of Cuba, through midweek, the National Hurricane Center said in a weather bulletin. Flooding and mudslides are also possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.
Heavy rain could then spread north into Florida and other parts of the southeastern U.S. Forecasters are advising people in Cuba and the Florida Keys to monitor the system through the week.
Storm season causes serious damage
The 2024 hurricane season brought massive devastation from storms like Beryl, Helene, and Milton... The US suffered five storms this season, killing at least 300 people and causing economic damage of about $130 billion.
Only four hurricanes have been recorded to make landfall in the US in the penultimate month of the season, but the most recent – Hurricane Nicole – hit Florida just two years ago. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
There are still many unknowns about the current system, its track and its potential for strengthening during the week. But Pydynowski pointed to favorable conditions in the Caribbean, including low wind shear and temperatures slightly above average in the mid-80s.
The big question for the US is what happens after the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly on November 6. It could initially strengthen before encountering strong wind shear and slightly colder waters as it moves closer to the US mainland.
Storms and low pressure are still raging.
A trough of low pressure near the southern Bahamas has produced showers and thunderstorms but is likely to be absorbed by Rafael by November 5, the NHC said.
But there are signs of further tropical activity in the northern Caribbean and perhaps the far southwest Atlantic around the Bahamas. Pydynowski stressed that the hurricane season won’t end for nearly four more weeks.
