The latest storm and low pressure information from the Philippine weather agency (PAGASA) said that a new low pressure formed inside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) at 8:00 a.m. on December 16.
At 2:00 p.m. on December 16, a new low pressure area (LPA 12a) in the Philippine PAR forecast area was expected to form, about 230 km east-southeast of Tagum City, Davao del Norte.
PAGASA's storm forecasters said that the new low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.
However, PAGASA noted that the new low pressure will cause rain in many provinces and cities of the Philippines. In particular, from noon on December 16 to noon on December 18, moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm) is forecast in Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental.
From noon on December 18 to noon on December 19, moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm) is forecast in Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte. "Local flooding may occur in urbanized areas, low-lying areas or near rivers," PAGASA said in its forecast. In particular, landslides are likely to occur in high-risk areas.
The weather in other areas of Mindanao as well as Eastern Visayas and Central Visayas is likely to be affected by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, wind shear will bring scattered rain and thunderstorms to Bicol, Quezon, Marinduque and Oriental Mindoro on December 16. A wind break is a point where cold air from the northeast monsoon converges with the winter wind (or warm air) from the Pacific Ocean.
The northeast monsoon is affecting Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Aurora regions, causing rain on December 16.
According to the latest storm forecast released by PAGASA at noon on December 16, during the week from December 16 to 22, the low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm in the PAR forecast area. Philippine typhoon forecasters assess the possibility of the low pressure area strengthening into a typhoon during the forecast period at moderate to high levels.
Notably, forecasters warn that the low pressure is likely to strengthen into a new storm near the Philippines, expected to sweep across the Philippines during the week of December 16 to 22 and will enter the East Sea.
The latest storm is forecast to enter the East Sea during the week of December 23 to December 29, becoming storm No. 10.
When it strengthens into a storm within the Philippine PAR forecast area, the storm will be named Querubin. This is expected to be the 17th storm to affect the Philippines this year.
In the December typhoon forecast, PAGASA forecasts that 1 to 2 tropical storms will form in the PAR forecast area or enter the PAR during the month. The most recent storm to hit the Philippines this year is Super Typhoon Pepito (international name Man-yi) in mid-November.
