According to international commodity experts, although gold and silver prices have fluctuated intermittently in the short term, the fundamental factors are leaning towards the scenario of maintaining an uptrend, as the Fed gradually moves away from the monetary tightening policy that has lasted for many years.
Mr. Daniel Pavilonis - senior commodity broker at RJO Futures - said that gold is currently showing superior strength compared to other precious metals, especially silver. Gold is showing much better relative strength than silver, he said, adding that recent pressures on the silver market have been largely technical.
According to Mr. Pavilonis, silver has experienced a strong increase in recent times and the appearance of profit-taking activities is inevitable. Many investors entering the market at a late stage are currently under pressure to deposit and are activated for loss stops, he said.
However, he believes that the $48/ounce mark is still an important threshold, likely to play a supporting role in the coming time.
From a macro perspective, Pavilonis emphasized the key role of the Fed's monetary policy in maintaining momentum for the precious metal. The Fed is cutting interest rates, suspending tightening policies and buying Treasury bonds to ease tensions in the financial market, he analyzed.
According to this expert, when bond yields are still high, cash flow tends to flow into Treasury bills because banks do not bring attractive profits. However, as yields gradually decline, cash flow is forced to seek other investment channels, in which gold and precious metals become natural destinations.
In addition to interest rate factors, inflation is still a top concern in public opinion. A large part of that cash flow is likely to flow into commodities, especially gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper, Mr. Pavilonis said.
In addition, the strong development of data centers an important growth driver for US and global GDP is also boosting demand for highly applicable metals such as silver and copper. Gold continues to play a safe haven asset in the context of economic and geopolitical instability.
Technically, Mr. Pavilonis said that the structure of the gold price chart is showing signs of accumulation and preparing for the possibility of breaking out to new peaks. In contrast, silver may be under further pressure from the US 10-year government bond yield surpassing 4.2% a factor that often causes a disadvantage for precious metals in the short term.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Sean Lusk - co-director of commercial defense at Walsh Trading - commented that the strong increase of the precious metal in 2025 has far exceeded normal standards. Even if the US economy is still quite strong, it seems to be no longer a decisive factor. The precious metal is currently traded as a group of independent assets, he said.
According to Mr. Lusk, gold is a favorite "taste" of the market, as cash flow from central banks, pension funds and large investment funds has been continuously poured in over the years. This trend is not easy to disappear. We will see profit-taking stages, but there are not any technical factors strong enough to reverse the trend, he commented.
Mr. Lusk said he is closely monitoring the $4,200/ounce mark on February gold futures. If prices fall below this range for many consecutive sessions, the market may retreat to the $4,000 or deeper range of $3,925 - $3,930. However, if it remains above the 4,200 USD mark, the possibility of setting new historical peaks is still highly appreciated.
Meanwhile, Michael Moor - founder of Moor Analytics - continues to maintain an optimistic view on gold prices next week, based on a series of confirmed long-term, medium-term and short-term technical signals. He said that the current upward trend of gold is still consolidating and there are no signs of structural weakness.
From the perspective of short-term technical analysis, Mr. Jim Wyckoff - senior analyst at Kitco - said that gold and silver still receive quite solid buying power, thanks to the dovish stance of the Fed and the weak USD. According to him, gold's next upside target is a strong resistance zone around $4,433/ounce, while the $4,200 mark continues to play an important support zone.
