In the context of gold and silver prices continuously setting new records after tensions between the US government and the Federal Reserve (Fed), TD Securities believes that the risk to gold is now more clearly two-way than in many years.
According to Mr. Daniel Ghali - Commodity Strategy Director of TD Securities (a global finance and investment company belonging to Toronto-Dominion Bank Group - one of the largest banks in Canada and North America), the platinum metal group is the group best positioned for a strong price increase in the near future.
Speaking on BNN channel, recent information related to the Fed has worried Wall Street observers, but in fact foreign investors holding US Treasury bonds have not yet reacted panickedly.
He said that the yield of US bonds for two-year terms remained almost unchanged, the term risk hedge was also mostly unchanged, and the foreign exchange market did not have major fluctuations. Meanwhile, the only thing that actually increased sharply was precious metals.
According to Mr. Ghali, gold is the most suitable asset to benefit as the USD gradually loses its value-retaining function, and that is the dominant story of the market over the past year. However, he also warned that the gold market structure is changing.
Gold prices are no longer mainly supported by the buying power of central banks, but are increasingly dependent on the "money devaluation" trend (which can be simply understood as the cash flow of investors betting that paper money, especially the USD, will increasingly lose value, so they transfer money to things that cannot be printed further such as gold, silver, platinum, goods, or tangible assets).
Commenting on the reaction of US politicians and economists, Mr. Ghali said that Chairman Powell could even emerge as a symbol of protecting the Fed's independence.
Although TD Securities believes that the 5,000 USD/ounce gold mark is completely achievable, Mr. Ghali also emphasized that the risk to gold prices is currently very high. He said that gold price fluctuations are at a high level, making the gap to the 5,000 USD mark no longer too far. The trend of currency devaluation may continue to strengthen in 2026, but at the same time there is also a possibility of reversal, causing the gold market to face clear two-way risks for the first time in many years.
Mr. Ghali noted that gold is no longer an "extraordinary" asset. The largest physical gold ETF fund is currently held by institutions at a level equivalent to about 65% compared to the largest ETF fund in history. This reflects the very large scale of the wave of money pouring into gold in the past year, resulting in gold prices continuing to increase sharply.
He also believes that because gold is now held very widely, if market sentiment reverses, gold prices may fall more sharply than before. In the past year, the'money-devaluing' trend was mainly driven by market sentiment, although it is a well-founded sentiment. Real inflation is decreasing, inflation expectations are low, so the main driving force of gold prices in recent times comes from market concerns about the prospects and stability of the US financial and monetary system.
In conclusion, Mr. Ghali said that TD Securities currently maintains a neutral stance towards gold at the current price and sees more attractive opportunities in other precious metals. According to him, the platinum group metal is the group with the best upside prospects in the coming period.
