The latest storm/low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 11, the center of the low pressure was at 10.9 degrees North latitude; 110.2 degrees East longitude, 445km west of Pag-asa, Kalayan, Palawan (Philippines), in the southern waters of the East Sea, about 330km from Mui Ke Ga (old Binh Thuan province, now Lam Dong province).
The low pressure is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. However, the low pressure trough is affecting the western areas of Central and Southern Luzon.
Also according to PAGASA, during the week of October 10-16, another low pressure (low pressure 1) is expected to form in the west of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR), moving westward into the East Sea, towards the central coast of Vietnam. PAGASA forecasts that the low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a storm.
During the week of October 17-23, another low pressure (low pressure 2) is expected to appear within the PAR. This low pressure is also unlikely to strengthen into a storm.
According to the weather forecast bulletin at 4:00 a.m. on October 11 of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, on the day and night of October 11, the South of the Gulf of Tonkin, the North - Central - South East Sea (including Hoang Sa and Truong Sa), the sea area from Quang Tri - Ca Mau, Ca Mau - An Giang and the Gulf of Thailand will have scattered showers and thunderstorms.
During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, strong gusts of wind of level 6-7, waves over 2.0m high.
Regarding the forecast of flooding, in the next 12 hours, floods on the Cau River at Dap Cau station, on the Thuong River at Phu Lang Thuong station will continue to decrease and remain above alert level 3; floods on the Trung River at Huu Lung station will continue to decrease and remain below alert level 3.
In the next 12-24 hours, the flood on the Cau River at Dap Cau station will continue to decrease and remain below alert level 3; the flood on the Trung River at Huu Lung station will continue to decrease and remain below alert level 2.
In the next 24 hours, floods on Luc Nam River (Bac Ninh) at Luc Nam Station, floods on Thai Binh River (Hai Phong) at Pha Lai Station will decrease and remain below alert level 1.
Flooding in Thai Nguyen, Bac Ninh, Lang Son provinces and Hanoi City is likely to last for the next 1-3 days; there is a risk of riverbank, river dike and landslides on steep slopes in the above areas.
Regarding the forecast of cold air, from the evening of October 10, in the continental area of Siberia (Russia), there will be a strong cold core. According to the forecast from the GFS weather model (USA), the maximum air pressure of the cold core on the evening of October 10 was up to 1060mbar, with the lowest temperature in the core area dropping to minus 25 to minus 20 degrees Celsius.
It is forecasted that by around October 19-20, the first cold waves from the southeastern edge of the cold core will officially overfloat into Vietnam, then it is likely to continue to be stronger and move deeper to the South, affecting the entire territory of the Northern - Central region.
In places where the northeast monsoon is coming, the temperature tends to decrease, in the North it will turn cold, the Central region is likely to enter a prolonged period of heavy rain, with the risk of a flood in river basins from around October 19-20, onwards.
